2013 MLB Draft: Live day 1 draft blog
7:35: The Indians have selected prep outfielder Clint Frazier with the #5 overall pick. Details coming soon...
7:28: The Twins take Stewart at #4. And, with that, as expected the top four players end up as Appel, Bryant, Gray and Stewart. Now the Indians are on the clock.
7:20: And the Cubs take Bryant at #2.....and Bowden is wrong. The Rockies wanted Bryant, so do they take Gray here or go with Smith who is a guy they have been tied to? If they DO go with Smith, then it means one of Gray or Stewart are there for the Indians at 5.
7:14 PM: The Astros selected Stanford righty Mark Appel. According to Jim Bowden of ESPN, he is saying that Gray will go #2 to the Cubs.
7:08 PM: The Astros are on the clock! According to Keith Law, he is saying that Mark Appel is the pick.
5:53 PM: Word from David Rawnsely of Perfect Game (who I think is the best in the business), is that according to a well placed source the Astros are down to Kohl Stewart and Colin Moran for the first pick.
Considering the Astros passed on Appel last year and his money demands probably won't be any different this year, it would be no surprise if Appel did not go #1, but wow, if Moran or Stewart go #1 then the draft is already shaken up one pick in.
4:21 PM: Right now, if you look at most mock drafts, the unanimous choices appear to be Appel and Gray going either 1 or 2, Bryant at 3 and then Stewart at 4. The Indians selection at 5 is the one that currently brings the most uncertainty, although several national pundits still keep saying it is either going to be Moran or Frazier for the Indians at that spot.
That said, there could be some surprises at the top of the draft because when you are dealing with a finite pool of money it changes everything. In years past, teams took the best player without regard to signability - unless they were THAT unsignable. But last season was the first year with the new draft bonus pool setup, and this resulted in teams letting some of the top talents slide in order to save money in the first round so they could overspend on high upside guys later in the draft. The Astros and other teams did this when they passed on Appel, and to an extent, the Indians did this when they selected Naquin.
While Appel and Gray appear to be locked into going 1 and 2, there is talk that Moran might go first overall because he would agree to a lower signing bonus than Appel or Gray. If this happens, then the draft, like last year, could see all sorts of interesting names fall and rise. There is also talk that the Rockies might select Dominic Smith at 3, and the Twins could even select Reese McGuire at 4.
If Moran goes to the Astros and/or Smith goes to the Rockies and/or McGuire goes to the Twins, then the Indians could be in the catbird seat at 5 and have a top 1-3 player like Appel, Gray or Bryant fall into their lap. The only question then would be if they take one of them. If they stay true to their board like they say they will, then you would think they will.
Just more of the intrigue that comes with this new draft setup.
3:42 PM: As noted in some of the prior articles leading up to today, 39 of the 40 picks the Indians have made in the top 10 over the last four years have been middle of the diamond players. In yesterday's Q&A with Brad Grant he went on to explain the reasoning behind this, and while he did not admit such a strategy would continue, it certainly is an approach they have taken into recent drafts.
If they do stick with such an approach, then it would almost have to eliminate Colin Moran as an option and make either Austin Meadows, Clint Frazier or Braden Shipley the pick. You never know which one of the Georgia high school center fielders the Indians like best, and with the possibility that both that Frazier and Meadows end up as corner outfielders, it may depend on how the Indians project them and who they believe can stick in center field. If they pass on Moran and the two prep outfielders, then they could go the safe route and select Shipley.
The Indians like the versatility of a middle of the diamond player whereas the corner guys leave much less room for error. While I would have no problem with Moran (or Bryant if he happened to slip), I just like Frazier the most at the moment. Shipley at #5 is not sexy enough of a pick for me. He might be a good pitcher, but not of impact quality you want picking as high as the Indians are and I'd obviously prefer one of Appel or Gray if one somehow falls.
1:56 PM: Lots of national pundits are putting in their final mocks today. Baseball America's Jim Callis, ESPN's Keith Law, and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo all have the Indians selecting North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran at #5. Only John Sickel's sees it differently as he is buying the rumor from Peter Gammons that the Rockies might take first baseman Dominic Smith at #3, thus allowing Kris Bryant to slide to #5 to the Indians.
12:55 PM: Another draft is here. Wow, it seems like yesterday when we were getting set for the 2012 Draft.
As in years past, the IBI will be all over the draft this week and up through the signing deadline with information, scouting reports, news, and much more. As each pick is made we will be throwing up draft capsules literally minutes after the picks. IBI draft guru Jeff Ellis will once again be providing write-ups on each drafted player and we will also have pictures, video, bios, and other information on players included in their draft capsules literally minutes after the pick.
Also, as in years past, I'll be providing post-day commentary each morning with analysis, quotes, and tons of stuff from scouts and people in the know. These writeups will be available to premium members only. In addition, I'll be providing daily signing updates up through the July 12th signing deadline.
One thing to note is that picks 3-40 will not be listed on the front page. In order not to bog down the front page and slider, we will only be posting them to the “News” section, which is the top left tab below the site header (they should also display in the "Newswire" in the right panel on the front page). As each pick is made, we will update and post the picks to that page. We will have one homepage article each morning on Day 2 and Day 3 that will direct people to that page as a reminder.
Also, this blog post will continue to be updated throughout the day today as new information becomes available. We will also post some commentary in this post throughout the day and during the draft up until the Indians first pick.
To get caught up on the draft, I suggest you check out Jeff Ellis's final mock which posted earlier today. Incredibly, he mocks out the first 111 picks of the draft, including the Indians' first three picks. For more detail and tons of info and insight on the first round picks (1 through 33), then I suggest you check out his previous mock which posted on Tuesday and his big board which posted on Monday (both are premium only). Also, for a good breakdown of the players the Indians have to choose from at #5, check out his seven targets at five piece.
Also, we will be holding a site chat tonight which myself, Jeff, and others will be a part of. We plan to open up the chat around 6:00 pm ET and let it run most of the night!
In any case, tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET the 2013 First-Year Player Draft will commence, and it can be seen live on the MLB Network in their Secaucus, N.J studio. They will also air a preview show, simulcast on MLB.com, at 6 p.m. ET.
Here is the draft order for the first round:
1. Houston Astros
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Cleveland Indians
6. Miami Marlins
7. Boston Red Sox
8. Kansas City Royals
9. Pittsburgh Pirates (compensation – Mark Appel unsigned)
10. Toronto Blue Jays
11. New York Mets
12. Seattle Mariners
13. San Diego Padres
14. Pittsburgh Pirates
15. Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Philadelphia Phillies
17. Chicago White Sox
18. Los Angeles Dodgers
19. St. Louis Cardinals
20. Detroit Tigers
21. Tampa Bay Rays
22. Baltimore Orioles
23. Texas Rangers
24. Oakland Athletics
25. San Francisco Giants
26. New York Yankees
27. Cincinnati Reds
28. St. Louis Cardinals (compensation – Kyle Lohse)
29. Tampa Bay Rays (compensation - B.J. Upton)
30. Texas Rangers (compensation – Josh Hamilton)
31. Atlanta Braves (compensation – Michael Bourn)
32. New York Yankees (compensation – Nick Swisher)
33. New York Yankees (compensation – Rafael Soriano)
- The draft will carry over three days as the first round, compensation round, competitive balance round and second round will only be held tonight, rounds 3-10 will be on Friday, and rounds 11-40 will be on Saturday. The draft picks back up at 12:30 pm ET on Friday and at 1:00 pm ET on Saturday.
- There will be a five minute interval between picks in the first round, and then one minute between picks from the first round supplemental round through the tenth round of the draft. Rounds 11-40 will be like the old way where picks are named off without delay. Both day two and day three of the draft will be held via a conference call from MLB headquarters in New York.
- The bonus pool will once again be something that is very interesting to follow this year since it is just the second year it has been implemented into the draft. Each club has a set amount of money that they can spend on their picks in the first ten rounds depending on where they are picking and how many picks they have.
Here is the Indians bonus pool:
|Round 1 (#5)||$3,787,000|
|Round 3 (#79)||$692,200|
|Round 4 (#111)||$463,200|
|Round 5 (#141)||$347,100|
|Round 6 (#171)||$259,900|
|Round 7 (#201)||$194,800|
|Round 8 (#231)||$158,300|
|Round 9 (#261)||$147,800|
|Round 10 (#291)||$138,100|
- It is important to note that the Indians cannot simply punt on picks in the first ten rounds to use that money to help sign another player. If they do not sign a player, that money is lost in the bonus pool. For example, if they decide to not sign their 3rd round pick valued at $692,200, they can’t just reallocate that money to their 9th rounder as that money from their 3rd round pick is gone.
- However, unused money from a signed pick can certainly be used toward other picks. So, in the example above, say they sign their 3rd rounder for $592,200, then they can use the extra $100,000 they did not spend on their 3rd rounder and use it toward the signing of another player(s). Bottom line, the Indians can use the money in the first ten rounds however they see fit so long as the player is signed.
- After the 10th round, teams can spend whatever they want on players up to $100,000 and the signing does not count against their bonus pool. Teams can sign a player above $100,000 after the 10th round, but then that signing is counted against their bonus pool.
- The penalties for going over your draft bonus pool allotment are pretty severe. If a team goes from 0-5% over they will be taxed at a rate of 75% of the overage. If a team is over by 5-10% then they are taxed the 75% and also lose their first round pick in the next draft. If a team goes over by 10-15% then they are taxed 100% and they lose a first and second round pick. Anything over 15% and the team is taxed 100% and they lose their first round pick in the next two drafts.
- Don't forget to keep checking back into the site throughout the day for updates to this blog post. As updates are provided they will be posted at the top of the page.
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While 2009 and forward may have been a change in mentality in the Tribe's drafting, those are two majors picks that are being ignored to prove your point.
Also, I have not read any scouting report on Clint Frazier that gives him a chance at sticking in CF that wasn't published on IBI. Maybe IBI is just in a minority in believing Frazier can stick in center, but if he had a true chance to play there in professional ball I would assume there would be less doubters. If Grant believes that Frazier is a centerfielder long term than he very may well be the pick, but I have yet to see someone besides this site that doesn't have him as a future corner outfielder.
Also, the Indians won't refuse to take Moran if he's the best player available just because of his position. It ignores the best player available mentality that comes first and foremost.