Around the Farm: November 11, 2013
Around the Farm (ATF) takes a quick look at some of the daily performances by Indians prospects. This is a special fall and winter ball version of ATF that recaps all the offseason action by Indians players in the Arizona Fall League and the Caribbean Leagues. The positions listed below are where the player was playing in the game.
Note, the Venezuela Winter League was off on Monday and no Indians were in action in the Dominican Winter League.
Arizona Fall League
Tyler Naquin (Surprise Saguaros, CF): 3-for-4, 2 R, 3B, RBI, BB, K. Naquin’s stint in the AFL is most adequately described using the term torrid. Offensively, Naquin has been a different guy, particularly in terms of his K/BB rate which sits at 13/11. Of course, 25 games is an absurdly small sample; however, Naquin has made important strides in the AFL which hopefully translate to his time in Akron next season.
Puerto Rican Winter League
Carlos Moncrief (Gigantes de Carolina, DH): 1-for-2, BB, K. Only his sixth game so far in winter league action. Nothing particularly valuable to note so far, but he continues to walk which was a major piece of his step forward this season.
Roberto Perez (Indios de Mayaguez, C): 0-for-1. An altogether empty line for a guy who has become more of an organizational prospect. This was the second game he has played where he made an appearance late in the game.
Brett Brach (Gigantes de Carolina, RP): 2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, HR. A pretty ugly line for Brach. Most concerning is the lack of strikeouts. Brach has thrown 5 1/3 innings so far and has only one strikeout, showing an inability to miss bats even when pitching limited innings. Of course, judging based on 5 1/3 innings is haphazard but this has never been something Brach has been adept at.
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I think you are right. I think the Cards want Tulo. Only problem Tulo has been injury prone lately. Pirates might be another team looking for SS. I made that suggestion because it was equal amount of money was traded in that scenario.
I have question if the Indians drew 2 million instead of 1.6mil how much additional revenue would that have created?
Three teams I would simply suggest could have interest in ACab are the Mets, Yankees and Pirates. The Phillies were also supposedly interested last offseason, so there's that.
With Choo being FA, the Reds could be looking for CF until B Hamilton is ready.
I won't be shocked either way regarding Michael Bourn. If he's moved I can see the Mets getting involved while they seek to rebuild their OF. They of course were burned by the Indians last season because of the protected 1st round pick. Should the Indians keep Bourn around, that's fine too, just have to hope for some adjustments, but I agree there are potentially better uses of 13 or so million dollars.
I for one, am in favor of putting that money into my bank account.
Fair enough. Let's see what happens in the next 6-8 weeks to see the direction the Tribe goes.
Jim Pete says that Ramirez is the same caliber of SS as Jose Iglesias and I consider Iglesias a very good SS. If teams felt that Aviles was an everyday SS option(not the Indians) they would be knocking down your door offering solid pitching for him.
I respect your opinion on Ramirez because you study and see these guys regularly, howvever, there are those that see something different than you on him and his ability to play SS on a regular basis. I think one of those are the Indians themselves. I also think you're overrating how the Indians view Aviles. If Aviles was an everyday SS option he wouldn't be with the Indians right now he would be with a contender because they would offer you something very good for him. He's simply not an option as an everyday SS, NO WAY!!! Some of your colleagues disagree with you on Ramirez as well and that's fine. I think the Indians think more highly of his ability to play there. Remember guys like Brandon Crawford and others have played their and won titles.
His second year with the White Sox Dunn bounced back to hit 46 HRs with a .801 OPS.
Hopefully Bourn went through something similar, although not as extreme, and will get back to his normal level of production next season.
In the previous three years before coming to the Tribe, Bourn's OPS was .766, .735, and .739. Then last year it dropped to .676, a decrease of 63 points. His OBP was down 32 points. And his stolen bases were less than half of his average of the previous three seasons (23 versus 47).
What the heck happened? Nagging injuries? Adjustment to a new league? Adam Dunn had an abysmal first season in the AL after coming over from the Reds, but bounced back his second year.
I think the Tribe just has to hope that Bourn gets back to his 2010-2012 numbers next year and then try to deal him once he has re-established his value. Hopefully Naquin will be ready to step in by then.
Bourn on the other hand is replaceable by capable center fielders already on the roster with Brantley and Stubbs. And while Bourn is a better hitter than Stubbs, there is not THAT much different between the two over their career:
Bourn: .335 OBP, .361 SLG, .312 wOBA, 92 wRC+, 20.6 K%
Stubbs: .310 OBP, .381 SLG, .307 wOBA, 89 wRC+, 29.3 K%
Bourn hits for a higher average (.271 vs. .239), but Stubbs' power and slightly better walk rate make them close with OPS (.699 vs. .691). There is not a lot that separates them offensively, and they are both essentially the same runner and defender. I know Bourn draws a lot of value in his WAR number from his defense, but from what I saw his defense doesn't match the high standards the numbers put on it. Bottom line, Stubbs will get about $3.5M from the Indians and Bourn will get $13.5M. You think he is worth $10M more than Stubbs based on those numbers above? If Bourn was making $6M and the Indians did not have a payroll crunch it would be another thing....
I disagree with you on this one. I don't think Stubbs is the hitter Bourn is. I didn't like the signing for the reasons you gave before but he did get some clutch hits and drive in some runs. He strikes out way too much but I think Stubbs is quickly running out of time in MLB if he doesn't play/ hit better. I think you rob peter to pay paul if you deal Bourn. I also think you send the wrong message to a fan base that already doesn't trust you and that you are trying to regain trust with.
Also, the issue is that teams will be hesitant to trade for Bourn with that salary and other issues and the value isn't where you want it to be. I'm afraid that we are stuck. Acab is a different story because we have someone right now that they want to give playing time to and freeing up his salary would be ideal. I just don't see it happening unless we give him away(which I would do) but will teams want him at that salary?? I have my doubts. Once again, I think we're stuck .
You're right and I was assuming injuries were the issue and he would be an option but if he carries this thru to the regular season he will be noticed not by just the Indians but with other teams when they talk trade with the Indians. It will be a nice chip to have and it will make Bourn,Brantley somewhat expendable if the Indians need to go that route or least have it to be an option later.