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Corner of Carnegie and Ontario: The Gifts keep flowing

Corner of Carnegie and Ontario: The Gifts keep flowing
December 27, 2012
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The winter holidays are firmly upon us here at the Corner of Carnegie and Ontario, and while Christmas is officially in the rearviewmirror, I can’t help but feel that the holiday is just beginning for the Cleveland Indians and their fans. There have already been a bevy of presents under the tree of all varieties:

  1. The Indians re-gifted Esmil Rogers for arguably much more than his value when we dealt him for infielder Mike Aviles and catcher/first baseman/outfielder Yan Gomes.
  2. They headed to K-Mart and picked up first baseman Mark Reynolds for a blue light special. You know, he was one of those deals where you aren’t quite sure whether you got a good deal or not, but you don’t have anything like it to begin with, so…why not.
  3. They traded a used but valuable gift in starting right-fielder Shin-Soo Choo for a sparkling brand new present in starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, and got the bonus gifts of starting centerfielder Drew Stubbs, right-handed relievers Bryan Shaw and Matt Albers. While it left a massive hole in right field, you acquired something of a replacement by filling the left field hole (with Brantley or Stubbs), grab one of the top three pitching prospects in all of baseball, and stack an already loaded bullpen.
  4. They picked up a former All-Star caliber starting pitching present in Scott Kazmir at the Goodwill for nearly nothing, as a low risk present that could pay off as a bottom-of-the-rotation gem.
  5. They rolled out a present straight out of the top-of-the-line electronics store when they picked up one Nick Swisher, who has been one of the most consistent and underrated offensive weapons in all of baseball over the past eight seasons. Not only does he give the Indians their poster-boy for the coming seasons, but he directly replaces Choo, and gives the Indians one of their best outfields in recent memory.
  6. Finally, the front office brought in the best gift of all, and it just happened to be the first gift of the pre-holiday season: one that keeps on giving long after the holidays are over. In Terry Francona, the Indians received a manager who not only wanted to come here, who not only can sell the team to free agents, but who has brought a whole new way of viewing the hot stove season.

So while we pick up and throw out the last of the shredded wrapping paper from our over-abundant Christmas holiday, it’s time to pack up the Family Truckster for the rest of our winter break, being careful to leave a bit of room for gifts from the relatives we’ve yet to see.

The Indians have an abundance of commodities that they could trade, should the right deal present itself. Many may have to read that last sentence a few times before there’s any sense of actually believing it, but it remains true. When this offseason started, it seemed likely that the only way the Indians would be able to make a move of consequence would be to trade away their only two 2012 all-stars in shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, and closer Chris Perez.

It was seemed relatively clear, even after the hire of Terry Francona, that the Indians were taking a risk-averse plan of bringing in talent. The belief would be that the Indians either wouldn’t offer enough money, enough years, or just wouldn’t have the free agent pull to sign anyone of consequence.

Yes, the Aviles trade was promising, but it really wasn’t anything out of the ordinary for this front office to do over the past couple of seasons. They did turn Esmil Rogers into a diamond out of a piece of coal, but the move, in singularity, wasn’t anything special. Of course, it did give the potential to trade Asdrubal Cabrera, but that still wasn’t likely. While Aviles is a good, solid utility player, he was arguably one of the lowest rated overall starting shortstops in all of baseball last season. Still, he has the ability to start, so in a worst-case scenario, the Indians could move Cabrera and have a better fill-in than current options.

When they picked up Reynolds at $6 million, it was another decent pick-up as a singular move, but nothing to howl at the moon about. While it was a better move than bringing in Casey Kotchman, Reynolds certainly had question marks. His power-hitting is unquestioned, but he has led the AL in strikeouts in four of the past five seasons, and hasn’t hit above .221 since 2009. The move was a bit frustrating in that the Indians appeared to be giving up on better “named” players like Kevin Youkilis, but was still a solid, if not spectacular move.

That’s when things really changed for this front office, and that starts with Shin-Soo Choo.

When you look back to the end of the year, Choo was believed to be at the top of the list to be moved. There were several teams that came knocking on the Indians door last July at the trade deadline to acquire Choo, but the Indians price was far too high. What they were looking for was at least one top prospect who would be ready to play, as well as other chips that either would be ready-to-play prospects, or current major leaguers. According to every major pundit and scout, the Indians were asking too much. I don’t think anyone reading this would disagree with that statement.

When the Indians were able to deal Choo, and not only that, acquire Trevor Bauer and Drew Stubbs as the centerpiece, it was clear that the front office was in aggressive mode, and that they were turning over every rock. I know I’m rehashing a bit, but think about it. They dealt one year of Choo for multiple years of Bauer. Is there anyone here that wouldn’t have considered that straight up? On top of that, they threw in lefty reliever Tony Sipp for Drew Stubbs, Bryan Shaw and Matt Albers.

While some will complain about the loss of Choo, that thinking is just insane. The deal was a steal for the Indians, and while there is the unknown of Bauer, I’ll argue that it’s a steal regardless of what Bauer does going forward. Why? Choo was gone after this year anyways, and there’s no way they get a better deal than this. Unless we find out that Bauer has massive issues with his arm (he doesn’t), then you can’t sell this as anything but a win, and anything but a change in thought. It was Antonetti, likely pushed by Francona, who wouldn’t give up on the idea of getting Bauer, even when the Diamondbacks said not to Cabrera.

They then “replaced” Choo with Nick Swisher, which has been discussed here at IPI/IBI at every level already. My point here is that the Indians nearly and completely filled up their lineup without giving up either of their biggest commodities. Now, as we head into 2013, the Indians are in the catbird seat.

They can keep Cabrera and Perez as centerpieces of their 2013 team. Both players still have two full seasons of control, and while there is an argument at their value over the next two seasons, there is still time to turn them into tradable pieces if 2013 is a wash heading into July. Then, they’ll still have a year-plus of control, and may be even more valuable should they replicate their first-half numbers of last season. Even if they don’t, there will still be value there.

That’s not even to say that a deal doesn’t fall into their lap this offseason.

The Pirates just dealt their closer to the Boston Red Sox in Joel Hanrahan, and to be honest, didn’t really bring in an abundance of major league talent. The best player they received was former closer Mark Melancon, who was a mess last year. In right hander Stolmy Pimentel, infielder Ivan DeJesus Jr. and first baseman/left fielder Jerry Sands, the Pirates received a bunch of seeming “not-quite” type players for their closer. When you take into account the fact that they had to include a decent prospect in Brock Holt, and the deal seems lopsided for the Red Sox. I actually think it was a decent haul for Neal Huntington, as there is upside there, but it’s not a deal screaming victory, as the obvious best player right now is Hanrahan.

So why mention it here?

Well, the Pirates moved quick on a deal for Hanrahan, saving them some cash that they likely needed after a few splash signings in catcher Russell Martin and pitcher Francisco Liriano. Hanrahan also has only one-year left of control before he becomes a free agent. While that isn’t much of a big deal for the cash-machine known as the Boston Red Sox, it is for the majority of the league, and the Indians in particular.

Let’s take a quick look at Hanrahan, and compare him to the Indians own closer commodity, Chris Perez:

Over the past two seasons:

 

Player

Games

Saves

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

K

ERA

Joel Hanrahan

133

76

128.33

96

35

32

9

52

128

2.24

Chris Perez

125

75

117.33

95

49

45

11

42

98

3.45

Clearly, you can see the similarities, and some will even make the case that the numbers are more similar because of the alleged offensive superiority between the American League and the National League. Others will showcase a couple of massively horrible games by Perez that skew his numbers. Regardless of your take, the numbers, as they are, are amazingly close over the span of two seasons.

There are two major differences between the two at this point, other than the fact that Hanrahan has already been traded. The first difference is that Perez has the aforementioned two years of control, compared to Hanrahan and his single year. The second reason is that the Indians aren’t in any position, as we speak, in which they HAVE to deal Perez. Sure, it would help with regards to salary, but it’s clear that it won’t put them over the brink at this point.

There’s also a third point that isn’t being mentioned all that much, but remains fairly important in the longevity of any future deal: Chris Perez is going to be 27 next season, which is four years younger than Hanrahan. As a closer, age can be tricky because of the implosive nature of the position, but it’s still something I’m sure the Indians will be noting in the future.

Perez now turns into a commodity. With Hanrahan setting the tone for Perez and his worth, it could put him at a premium with only a few decent options out there (Rafael Soriano is still available, as of this writing). There are several teams that could be looking at a closer as we head into 2013. Some of the interesting options could be the Detroit Tigers, the Milwaukee Brewers, the New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Angels, and the Los Angeles Dodgers. All the teams mentioned are questionable for various, and sometimes obvious reasons, but all could be viable candidates for different reasons. The point being that the Indians aren’t the hunters at this point, but may become the hunted.

The focus for Perez for fans will be on the Dodgers, who are in dire need of a closer, and who have an overabundance of needs for the Indians with regards to starting pitching. I’m not sure that a deal will ever get done, but there could come a point where the Dodgers, who have had talks with the Indians over this hot stove season, come knocking on the Tribe door. The Indians will surely be waiting from their catbird seat.

It’s a really good way to drum up interest for a player that may not have had that much interest to begin with (see Choo, Shin-Soo).

Asdrubal Cabrera is the more interesting of the two players with regards to a trade, and should generate far more interest. While each of the teams I mentioned for Perez (and there are more than I mentioned) have reason for pause in acquiring a closer for too much, the market for Cabrera may end up larger simply because Cabrera is an every day player.

The top candidate still remains the St. Louis Cardinals. While there hasn’t been any clear communication between the two clubs regarding the Tribe shortstop, the Cardinals are clearly concerned about their current shortstop, Rafael Furcal. Furcal was terrible last season, and at 35, he’s not likely to get any better any time soon. He tore his ulnar collateral ligament, and chose not to have surgery, instead choosing rehab. In a magically delicious moment, a recent MRI revealed that Furcal’s elbow was healed and 100%.

The Indians are asking for a lot for Cabrera, and they are now sitting in their offices here at the Corner standing firm. Teams know that their asking price for Cabrera is an equivalent deal to the Choo deal, for better or…well…better. There’s no downside to a deal for Cabrera, as the Indians no longer need it right now.

Are the Cardinals bluffing with regards to Furcal, hoping to seem in a non-needy position? Perhaps. If not, so be it. The Indians go into 2013 with their starting shortstop intact, and a pretty darned good one.

Like I said, it’s a good position to be in.

The Indians have addressed many of their issues and still have their commodities. As hard as I’ve been on this front office, I have to say that I’m impressed. If this team implodes in 2013, it’s not out of a failure of effort. They’ve done their job.

The Indians still are attacking the free agent bin for some starting pitching. As Tony mentioned the other day, they are still going to be looking for either a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy, or go after a couple of bottom-of-the-rotation options, and no, Kazmir doesn’t count.

So, who is available at this point? There are some interesting options out there, for sure, but some just aren’t realistic. Let’s take a look at a few, what they may cost, and the realities of the situation:

  1. Kyle Lohse: Lohse is certainly a top five pitcher on the market right now, and many are pointing to a diminishing market as a potential bonus for the Indians. Lohse would cost most teams a first-round pick, but would only cost the Tribe a third rounder, since they’ve already given up their second rounder when they signed Swisher. The wildcard here is the fact that Scott Boras is Lohse’s agent. There are other enigmas to Lohse. While he’s had his best two year stretch of his career, going 30-11 with a 3.11 ERA (16-3 last season), he’s also 34 and likely on the fiscal cliff of his career. Will he take a two-year deal for 15-18 million? C’mon, he’s a Boras client, there’s no flippin’ way, right? Even so, would the Indians even want to do it? I’m on the fence here. I’m not sure what I would spend for Lohse, but if he’s still out there, would take two years, and would do it at something reasonable, I’m all in. But with every player in his free-agent caliber signing in the ballpark of $15 million a year, I don’t see it happening.
  2. Shaun Marcum: I consider Marcum a top ten pitching free-agent this season, and while he’s not someone that jumps out as special, I would love to get him on the cheap. The market for him is a mixed bag right now when you consider guys that are similar to him in potential are getting anywhere from $7-to-$13 million a year, and anywhere from one-to-three years. The Indians would clearly be in on a one-year contract for Marcum, and I would have to believe it would be below $7 million. No, I don’t think they are going on the cheap at this point, but I do think they are looking to get a guy on the low-end of his worth. They likely value Marcum a bit higher than a few guys I’m about to mention, so they could press the issue, but there are red flags about Marcum’s health. When you talk about potential elbow and shoulder issues, that old risk-aversion habit could come into play. He is a buy-low guy though, so he could be a steal if he continues to go unsigned.
  3. Joe Saunders: I don’t even know that I consider Saunders third on this list, but there are things about him that I really like. First off, he’s a lefty who has been extremely effective at times throughout his career. He’s an innings-eater, and he would really fit in well with the Tribe rotation. At 32, he’s a guy that you could legitimately offer a two-year deal to, and not feel all that bad about it. When you look at the Indians current rotation of Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Trevor Bauer, Zach McAllister and Corey Kluber, if you were to plug in Saunders at #3, you’d improve your rotation to the point of moderate respectability. If you squint your eyes a bit, you could see some upside there. Say Masterson rebounds and Jimenez stabilizes. You know what you are going to get with Saunders, and Bauer is a plus-wildcard. I really think that McAllister is better than many give credit for, and while he’ll never be a top-of-the-rotation guy, I really think he can be better than average. If you plop him in that #4 or #5 slot, he really could surprise…if there’s no pressure on him. Sorry…got away from Saunders, but you can see why he could be a plus get. The money has to be right though.
  4. Brett Myers: Alright, I honestly don’t know what to think about Myers. When he was a starter from 2003-2006, 2008, and 2010-2011, he averaged 202 innings a year. He went 89-79 as a starter, with a 4.27 ERA in 1560 innings. He struck out 1,254 batters, and walked 514. I don’t know what any of that means other than the fact that he was an innings eater, and not a bad one. The big thing with Myers is his asking price. He made 11 million last year with the White Sox, and he won’t get anywhere near that this year. For the right price, he’s definitively someone you look at. How much though? You’d have to think that a one-year, $3-4 million would be the right money. That’s just a stab in the dark, as I’m sure Myers is selling himself as much more than that.
  5. Kevin Millwood: He has history with the Tribe, but is clearly on the downside of his career. Still, he’s a guy that can give you 170-ish innings, and a guy that should have a solid ERA. While he was 6-12 last year, his 4.25 ERA would have been sparkling for this club. I still think Millwood is a considerable step below the top four guys, so we’re talking a one-year deal here, and in the $2-$3 million range, if that.
  6. Jair Jurjjens: Jurrjens is the last guy I’m going to mention here, and by no means do I think he’s sixth on the list of total guys that are available to the Indians. He’s just a guy that intrigues me as a potential low money side that could bring high upside with the right coaching. Truth be told, if you brought in Myers and Jurjjens, I’d be all for it. Could they? I’m not sure, as I do think Myers is looking for more money than the Indians will be offering. Still, the market will be shaking itself out, and the Indians appear to be in a good place right now, so they could get a steal.

At the end of the day, the Indians likely aren’t going to be staring at a massive rotation change at the start of the year. Here’s what you shouldn’t forget though my faithful readers…if the Indians are in play in July, they will make a deal, you can count on that. You also can’t forget one Carlos Carrasco, who if they handle right, could be a July add of note. You also can’t take Danny Salazar out of the equation completely. He certainly is a fringe 2013 guy right now, but you just. never. know.

With that, I hope you all had a fantastic Christmas, and as the crew here at Corner of Carnegie and Ontario load up and head off to Wally World, have a fantastic New Year. I appreciate every IPI/IBI reader, and look forward to a fantastic 2013!

Time to take off on that holiday road (and admit it, you all just started singing that Lindsay Buckinham song)….

 

Jim is currently the senior editor and Columnist, as well as  the host of IBI's weekly online radio shows, Smoke Signals and Cleveland Sports Insiders. You can follow Jim on Twitter @Jim_IBI, or contact him via e-mail at jpete@indiansprospectinsider.com.

User Comments

Matt
December 27, 2012 - 9:35 PM EST
skydancing, your name sounds eerily familiar but i may be thinking of mooncamping. The Indians have so many depth options I would not be upset if the Indians sign 1 more starter and leave the #5 up to Huff, Gomez, Kluber, & Barnes with Kasmir, Bauer, Carrasco, House in the wings... maybe the rotation isn't as bad as I thought. Still need 1 more, preferably LH...
Andy
December 27, 2012 - 7:21 PM EST
That is assuming the Indians feel that Droobs, Pure Rage, and Ubaldo can be replaced by minimum salary players in 2014. Think R-Rod/ Lindor, Armstrong/ Haley, and House/ Salazar, respectively.
Andy
December 27, 2012 - 7:08 PM EST
I worry about how signing Lohse would affect the Indians' flexibility in the draft, but he should be worth 2.0-2.5 WAR for the next few years. If you take Shapiro's comment that 1 WAR costs 10MM in free agency, then why not sign Lohse for 3 yrs/ 50MM? He is an 89-mph sinkerball pitcher with good breaking and off-speed stuff and a low walk rate, so his age 34-36 seasons are safer bets than they may seem.
Tony
December 27, 2012 - 6:10 PM EST
Skydancing, I like Kluber, Gomez and huff more as depth options. The fact they are out of options should not hamstring the decision-making process. In reality, they will probably have to move on from one or both of Huff-Gomez at some point next year. Both have had a lot of opportunities in the past to prove themselves and just not been consistent enough, so if the opportunity arises to pick up a reliable starter they have to do it.

Carl, I just don't see the Indians and Tigers completing a deal for Chris Perez. Rarely such a deal happens in the division. Yes, they made the Peralta trade a few years ago, but that was midseason and the Indians were out of it. As for Soriano, he's still out there.....but the Cubs would have to pay a lot of that contract and demand less in return, which probably is not happening right now otherwise he would have been dealt.
Seth
December 27, 2012 - 2:34 PM EST
I'd agree from that list the only two it would even be worth pursuing would be Marcum and Lohse, but Lohse is probably too expensive. Myers I feel like would be equivalent to the Lowe signing, and at this point is probably no better than Bauer or Kluber.

I think moving Asdrubal at this point is highly unlikely. They already got the pitching prospect they needed with the Choo move. You pretty much have to go with Masterson, Carrasco, Bauer, McAllister as your "core" pitching staff to see how that plays out. Acquiring additional pitching prospects at the expense of your all-star shortstop seems like a bad idea. I would be down with moving Chris Perez to the Dodgers for just about anything if it means they invest his salary elsewhere. e.g. if they cannot currently take on any of Soriano's contract, but could if they moved Chris Perez, then do it. Same goes with signing a Marcum. Especially if they can get a decent prospect for Chris Perez. It's a great opportunity to upgrade now and in the future without increasing their salary commitments.
RotoSaurus
December 27, 2012 - 2:17 PM EST
Lohse is old and coming off a career-year... he'll be overvalued and is in for a lot of regression.. he's not that good. Saunders is below-average and coming from the NL he'll get torched in the AL. Forget about Millwood, he's done. Myers wasn't fooling anybody as a closer, and at this point his velocity has likely deteriorated to the point that he won't be useful as a starter anymore. Jurrjens would be interesting as a shot-in-the-dark but Marcum should be their only real target. He is as consistent of a starter as there is out there as long as he's healthy. If you can get him for $7 mil or less on a 1-2 year deal it could be a HUGE steal. They could also grab Sheets or Young, who we know won't be healthy for anything close to a full year, but for however long they are healthy they could put up very good numbers. Has there been any movement on another OF to allow them to vastly improve the defense by moving Swisher to 1B and Reynolds to DH?
Jim
December 27, 2012 - 1:46 PM EST
Yeah Homer...I agree 100%. I know the Indians stick to a strict payroll model, but I'm wondering if they aren't pondering going over if they think they have a shot at contending...and I have to believe they are signing to contend in 2013 and 2014 and...well...every year.

They're trying to "thread the needle" and rebuild and contend at the same time. If they think they can win, and can do it in a cost effective strategy (at this point), I think they go out and get their pitching...

but I clearly thing there are trades to be had...if they wait...
Homer
December 27, 2012 - 1:15 PM EST
What's the saying? Something like, "when you think you have enough pitching get more"...

The Tribe doesn't have enough pitching, that's pretty simple to see. They have a ton of RP which certainly helps but lack a full rotation and in my mind they need to land at least two more veteran starting options for the big club. That being said, resources are a concern. That's why I think they should reallocate the resources they've put into CPerez and ACab. Both could bring in a solid haul of now talent with the extra resources they could make aggressive offers on guys like Marcum for hopefully only 1 yr. Marcum only pitched 21 games last yr and had TJ in 2009 and suffered through a sore elbow that caused him to miss 2 mths. He's a bit of a risk but if healthy he could be a solid add. Brett Myers is another guy, I like him, he's been a qlty innings eater in the past. I'd think he could get a deal similar to Kevin Corriea's 2 yrs / $10 M. Personally, I'd prefer something cheaper with a lot of incentives written in a deal for Myers but I'm guessing he could get that much.
Jim
December 27, 2012 - 12:45 PM EST
Carl...I would say no to the Tigers trade, if they hadn't have dealt Peralta to them. It's not optimal though. Soriano is certainly an option, but not one that I'm crazy about. Tony mentioned it within the past week though.

I would assume everything is on the table right now though...
Carl
December 27, 2012 - 12:39 PM EST
Very good summary of the offseason so far. Encouraging for Tribe fans. Would Tribe trade with Tigers? C Perez for R Porcello or Drew Smyly? It would seem a closer is only thing holding Tigers back. I would think Perez is more appealing then R Soriano, due to cost, and draft pick. Does Tribe still have interest in A Soriano? Nice for DH role and part time OF.
art
December 27, 2012 - 11:55 AM EST
Good article, I'd be willing to go with Brett Myers for two seasons at $7-8 million.
That Guy Again
December 27, 2012 - 11:18 AM EST
Asdrubal Perez?
Roger
December 27, 2012 - 11:09 AM EST
i agree with virtually everything jim said in this article. it looks as if santa was very good to the indians this year. however in no way do i want to part with any more draft choices so jair looks like the best pickup i am not certain we need more than one more starter for the rotation. With car car The odds of TJ surgery being successful are same as snow in winter in cleveland. so lets assume that isnt a wild card but a card that we know its value that being said we only need one more starter and not even sure of that need after goodyear we may get a couple pleasant surprises. frankly i would not object to 500 baseball until memorial day and then get the mound picture sorted out 2011 was fun at first but left us with expectation, even 2012 to a lesser degree 21-20 or so on memorial day works for me. after that this team may find its chemistry and start to rock and roll there is no way the indians were as bad as they have looked the last two years in the second half of the season. And this is far more complete team with no more moves being made and to get more prospects at the upper levels is nice but the talent 2 yrs away is incredible and will make the acquired almost ready for prime time players excess and frankly excess doesnt have the market value that sending strub or CP would warrant.
Joe
December 27, 2012 - 10:58 AM EST
Real good article Jim. Informative as to where we are. I think one more FA, perhaps Jurjiens on a short deal would be enough, as Huff and Gomez are there to fill in if needed. And if somethings fall in to place on Cabrera and Perez, a more top of rotation starter could be had. Then the pitching depth gives the front office some flexibility at the trade deadline. Also good to see the control the team has over the majority of the 40 man roster. This team may be a lot closer to contending than we give them credit for. Antonetti/Shapiro have done a great job so far. Didn't expect to see all this materialize, especially Swisher, so hats off to them. Look forward to the rest of the off season to see what other surprises might be in store.
Mike 127
December 27, 2012 - 10:54 AM EST
No mention of Jeff Karstens? I'd think he'd be just below Saunders on my list. Certainly better than Millwood.
skydancing8
December 27, 2012 - 10:25 AM EST
Of the six pitchers mentioned I'm much higher on just using Huff, Kluber or Gomez in the fifth spot of the rotation and plugging Carrasco in sometime during May.

Both Huff and Gomez are out of options anyway, might as well see if you can get anything out of them and hope to be surprised. Kluber has more upside than people give him credit for as well.

It just seems to me at the end of the day the upgrade is minimal with those FAs and when factoring in the money and the fact that you'll probably lose one of Gomez or Huff its more of a wash or a loss IMO.
mike
December 27, 2012 - 10:23 AM EST
excellent article/summary of where we stand so far. Can't wait to see how this offseason plays out in the New Year!

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