The Tribe's challenge in closing the gap in AL Central (Part 2)
In yesterday's first part, we compared the lineups of the American League Central’s three leading teams, the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians and the American League Champion Kansas City Royals.
We deduced that with the Royals’ youth, defense and speed, and the Tigers’ ability to hurt you in all aspects of the game, the Indians have a difficult task ahead of them if they hope to make a dent in the AL Central in 2015.
So, where do the Indians need to improve?
One of the most glaring deficiencies is in the area of defense. The Tribe was the worst team in the league defensively, committing 116 errors that cost them 72 unearned runs, with the worst offenders being Chisenhall (18 errors), Gomes (14) and Santana (11).
Many of the Gomes errors came early in the season when, after signing a contract extension, he appeared to lose all sense of how to catch in April and early May. After the slow start, Gomes got back to being what he has been for the Tribe, a solid receiver with a cannon arm. Six of Santana’s errors came during the ill-fated third base experiment, which saw Carlos move across the diamond where he showed great defensive improvement as a first baseman. Both should improve upon their numbers in 2015.
This leaves Chisenhall.
Manning a weak left side of the infield at third, Chiz and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera’s defensive inconsistencies killed the Tribe over the first half of the season. When Cabrera was shipped out to Washington at the trade deadline, youngster Jose Ramirez stepped in and quickly righted the ship at short. But while Chisenhall was hitting, his defense seemed to cost the Indians at all the wrong times.
Looking at the infield defense, the Indians will be exceptional at shortstop whether Ramirez or top prospect Francisco Lindor man the position. They’re a bit weak at second due to the limited range of Jason Kipnis (only six errors) and Santana should be solid if not spectacular at first.
So, how important is it to remove Chisenhall from the hot corner?
Was the first half of last season a fluke? Was Chisenhall’s growth as a hitter a mirage? While Manager Terry Francona seemed to put Chiz in a position to succeed, he still had to hit in those situations. But why the huge drop-off offensively after the All-Star Game? Lonnie pounded out a .356 average before the break, but scuffled to the tune of .218 in the second half. You might think he could be a platoon candidate, but he actually hit left-handed pitching better in 2014.
Chisenhall: .280/.343/.427 (13 HR/59 RBI)
Sandoval: .279/.324/.415 (16 HR/73 RBI)
Headley: .262/.371/.398 (6 HR/17 RBI)
As much as I would like to “upgrade” at third base, the available upgrades aren’t worth the added expense. Period. Now, if you want to go the “Oakland will trade us Josh Donaldson to save money” road, then we can talk. But it’s going to cost you a Lindor/Salazar package. Are you willing to do that? Are the Indians? That would be a short conversation from both sides, whether it should or shouldn’t be is another story.
Regardless, the Indians defense should improve if for no other reason that they can’t be that bad again, can they? A healthy Kipnis and his contract will most likely be at second base, but if he scuffles with the bat again, don’t overlook the possibilities of a Lindor/Ramirez combo up the middle, which would vastly improve the Tribe defensively. But if Kipnis hits, it’ll never happen.
So, where then can the Indians actually upgrade? Right field.
The rest of the outfield is set with Michael Brantley and Michael Bourn, but David Murphy and Ryan Raburn have been disappointing in right field where they can be liabilities. And while the Indians finally have some good, young outfielders coming, there may be another answer.
Sign Alex Rios – Rios is still a solid right-handed hitter, although his power has been dwindling. But a professional bat from the right side could be a great addition to the Indians’ lineup and solid defense is always a plus. If you could get him on a cheap one- or two-year deal, Rios could be a great value sign.
Get Drew Stubbs back – Kansas City’s outfield defense was vaunted as the best in the bigs when Gordon, Dyson and Cain were all in together. I recall thinking to myself that it was the Indians that had that same scenario in 2013 with Brantley, Bourn and Stubbs. The Tribe made a huge mistake in dealing Stubbs for lefty reliever Josh Outmanlast offseason. Stubbs had a nice year for the Colorado Rockies as a backup, going .289/.339/.482 with 15 homers and 20 stolen bases. Stubbs has always been known as a great defender with a good arm, and while he has too many swings and misses at the plate, the defensive upgrade and speed he brings to the game would greatly help the Indians both in the field and on the basepaths. Plus, when Bourn goes down with his annual injuries, Stubbs can slide over to his natural CF spot and leave the Gold Glove caliber Brantley in left field, where he is a much stronger defender. The Rockies are in great need of pitching and Stubbs wasn’t starting for them. The Indians, meanwhile, have a man without options and without a position in Zach McAllister, who could be a decent fit in this kind of a deal. And, seriously, do we really want to see Mike Aviles in the outfield again?
In the end, the Indians need to just play better, regardless of any moves they make. The upgrade at short will translate well over the course of the full season, as it anchors the rest of the infield. A Stubbs reacquisition could make more of an impact on the Tribe than some realize, and while it would hurt the depth to lose McAllister, the Royals showed how great speed and defense can impact a game.
So, heading into the offseason, Cleveland still has some question marks, but odds are they will ride the strength of their young rotation and hope for improvement from the likes of Nick Swisher, Bourn, Kipnis and Murphy. If they get even career average production from that bunch, it could be an Indian summer once again in 2015.
5. As a first baseman, Santana batted .274 (.912 OPS) with 20 homers and 63 RBI in 94 games.
but we don't need to score more runs as much as improve the defense. we scored more runs than the royals & giants. scoring runs will get you to the playoffs, but keeping opponents from scoring is what wins championships. the royals gave up 565 earned runs. the giants, 564. we were at 581 but we also gave up 79 unearned runs. the royals 60, the giants, only 50. if our young starting pitching continues to improve (and there's no reason to think it shouldn't,) and tighten up the defense, we can challenge the royals.
if we want to improve the defense, we need to re-think santana at 1B. there's a reason the average height of a MLB first baseman (minus swisher and santana) is about 6'2.5". santana is generously listed at 5'11" some places but he's probably no more than 5'10" tops and his arms are not particularly long. add half the height difference in wingspan and we're talking 6-8" decreased reach. who knows how many close plays at 1B might have been outs with a taller player? or how many bad throws that were charged as errors might have been eliminated by a defender who could scoop those throws out of the dirt or someone a little bit taller who could make the catch and keep his foot on the bag? or how many times an infielder might be tentative on a throw because he knew santana couldn't come up with a bad throw?
unfortunately, i don't have a good answer - unless you find a way to move bourn allowing us to move brantley back to CF and give santana a chance to earn a spot in LF.
the only way i could see us moving bourn is in an exchange of albatross contracts. maybe a 3 way with the orioles and cubs. we send bourn to the cubs (for whom bourn would be an upgrade). the cubs get a chance to dump edwin jackson who would go to the orioles who would save something like $10 mil if they sent us UJ and another $5mil to the cubs to cover the difference between bourn & jackson's contract.
1) cubs dump jackson and get a viable contributor to their lineup
2) the orioles save eight figures trading UJ's contract for jackson's.
3) we break up a logjam by giving santana another spot in the lineup and give the 6'2" aguilar a chance to win the 1st base job. and in exchange for that 3rd year of UJ's contract, get a chance to have a viable starter for 3 seasons assuming callaway can re-fix UJ's delivery. that third year of the contract is the risk. the other two years we were going to pay bourn that much anyway. that also gives us a chance to put someone else at the top of the lineup with a better OBP. maybe a rebounding kipnis?
What do you think about making Salazar the closer and moving Allen back to set up?
The Tribe could then go get Fausto back for around 4 million to add to the rotation.
So while I would love to add a bat, the number one need is a late inning pen arm. The Indians went from one of the best at holding mid-inning leads in 2013 to one of the worst....all because they lost Joe Smith to free agency and Cody Allen moved to the closer role. Having just Shaw in that role and Allen miscast as closer cost this team dearly, arguably more than anything else as they led baseball in blown saves. The starting pitching was a problem early on but righted itself. I'd like to see some pitching depth. But as for a bat, outside of a complementary pickup, I wouldn't expect much. The Indians are locked into too many guys.
I.O.W...Chisenhall, has his issues with the leather.. mostly throwing, but using this HORRIBLE statistical presentation of his ability.. makes little sense.. If Lonnie should be moved anywhere.. it's not to the OF.. it's to where Carlos is playing, 1B. Getting Josh Donaldson and or Chase Headly.. isn't the answer either..
w/r to Rios.. never lived up to his ginormous contract.. always underachieved.. and has moved through three systems.. His K rate is climbing.. his walk rate is declining. The power he once displayed, albeit briefly, (ISO .212, .154, .118 over the last three seasons) is declining.. This is the classic "get a guy who was once.. and hope his talent can be rekindled" player.. Pass even at the bargain price of $ 7 MM - $ 9 MM..
Free agents don't work for the Indians.. If the Indians want a slugging RH who can play 3B or RF.. they need to trade for one or draft and develop one. Buying one just isn't in the cards...
I am fine with Chisenhall staying in the lineup. In fact, I think that is ultimately what happens. If they sign a 3B on a one year or two year deal, then he moves to RF and also gets time at 3B, DH and maybe even 1B. If the Indians go out and sign a RF, then he stays at third base for the time being and Aviles plays some there until Urshela is ready to mix into things. Ultimately, the guy I think who may be the odd man out if the Indians do sign a bat, is Murphy. It was a nonsense signing last year and we are seeing how being stuck with him for 2015 has them in a tough spot. hopefully they can find someone willing to take him on in a deal.
Rios on a 1 year deal with an optional 2nd might not be bad, but I would prefer to see Stubbs back. His defense and base running ability changes the game. I'm holding out hope that they can find consistent at bats for Aguilar. I think he is a better bat than most on the market, but it will be difficult to put him in the line up unless Swisher is in the OF. That doesn't help matters defensively.
I could see a Stubbs - Chis platoon in RF, though with Chisenhall's enhanced ability to hit LHP it doesn't make as much sense as it would have.
The need for right-handed power might be over stated anyway. Progressive Field has historically been one of the worst ballparks for right handed hitters. I'd be interested in seeing if it is necessarily the right-handed hitters being bad or if the ballpark is making them bad. Not sure how to find that information on fangraphs. Regardless, Indians hitters are 6th in wRC in the AL against left handed pitchers (5th against RHP). It's not like left handed pitchers are killing them. Rather get another left-handed bat to take advantage of Progressive Field then try and solve a problem that isn't even there.
P.S. I would trade Lindor/Salzaar for Donaldson in a second.
Detroit 90-72 -
Kansas City 89-73 1
Cleveland 85-77 5
Can you remember four games in the last month of the season the Tribe blew because of a fried bullpen? I can. These three teams are very close. A few games here and there throughout the season make all the difference. Detroit proved how formidable they are in the playoffs, as they were swept by the Orioles.
This sentence couldn't be any more wrong. Chisenhall's first half is the only reason why he looked any where near salvagable this year. His defense IS that awful, and his second half offensively was disgusting. I fail to see how the team can go into the offseason looking to stand pat at 3B. UZR/150 has him at -15, good for the second worst defensive 3B in the league! And his DRS of -14 is STILL second worst! That's not even on a per rate basis, with the sixth fewest innings accumulated at 3B, Chisenhall cost the team FOURTEEN RUNS! For all qualified 3B with less than 1000 innings played at the position, only Luis Valbuena reached the double digit mark with -10, and UZR/150 said he was worth -4.9. Given his offense this year, that means that Valbuena was actually MORE valuable than Chisenhall!
Think about that, we cast off Valbuena but he's better than our current incumbent! Valbuena walked more, hit for more power, didn't have Chisenhall's absurd BABIP luck, all at the cost of just a 20.7% K%. I'm not advocating that we pursue Valbuena as a trade target, but I'm definitely using Valbuena as an example as to WHY we need to upgrade from Chisenhall. Perhaps another team would be willing to give up something not terrible for Chisenhall, but to argue that a pursuit of Headley isn't worth it is ludacris at best. Chisenhall for his career has been right about league average offensively with HORRIBLE defense at 3B. Meanwhile Headley for his career has been ~14% above league average offensively and has been a plus defender. If he can be had right around 3/39-3/45 the Indians have no business NOT being in on him. Because yes, Chisenhall is that bad.